Diagnosis of the Quebec ski system’s vulnerability to climate change

Quebec’s alpine ski industry is very important to its regional development and tourism. It makes a significant contribution to regional economies, accounting for 6.4% of tourism GDP and $866 million in economic spin-offs for 2019. However, the ski industry is and will be affected by shocks and stresses linked to climate change, at unequal rates between resorts and regions and to varying degrees over each of the four seasons.

Alpine ski resorts are an important branch of tourism in Quebec, as sentinels of the economies near the mountains where they are located. The industry has already been working for decades to increase its resilience in the face of climate change. However, few studies have focused on gaining an advanced understanding of the system’s vulnerability, which includes its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity to climate change. Sensitivity refers to the intrinsic factors of resorts and the industry that make them more or less sensitive to climate-related stresses and shocks, which can have repercussion on higher links in the system (e.g. suppliers and skiers), and indirect impacts (e.g. on sports equipment manufacturers or tourist associations). Adaptive capacity refers to the various means enabling them to bounce back from or prevent climate impacts.
 

The aim of this project is to assess the Quebec ski system’s vulnerability to climate change at the industry-wide level and at the level of a sample of 30 resorts located in 16 administrative regions, organized into categories. The sub-objectives are:

• To identify the relevant weather risks, particularly those related to natural snow on the ground in Quebec 

• To understand its vulnerability (the assets, activities and people exposed to risk) as well as its sensitive points and adaptive capacities in the current and future climate

• To analyze the economic impact of climate change on the alpine ski system

• To engage with stakeholders to develop a shared understanding of the complexity of the system, taking concerns into account in order to propose effective, fair and sustainable solutions for all parties   

The steps taken to assess vulnerability are*:

• Identifying high-priority climate hazards and the aspects and components of the alpine ski system that are exposed to them 

• Identifying the impacts of these climate hazards throughout impact chains 

• Understanding the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of resorts and the industry as a whole 

• Aggregating of all this data to obtain an overview of the system’s vulnerability

• This approach is underpinned by a systemic vision, as an entire business ecosystem is facing the pressures of climate change.

This project draws on the scientific excellence of researchers in sustainable tourism (Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières) and environmental economics (FDC Inc.) and Ouranos teams working on climate change adaptation and climate science.

*Inspired by the ISO14091:2021 standard, Adaptation to climate change – Guidelines on vulnerability, impacts and risk assessment.

The vulnerability of alpine skiing depends on many factors, including the intensity of weather events, the sensitivity of resorts and their ability to adapt. 

The climate hazards that affect Quebec ski resorts the most are: rising average winter temperatures, the number of freeze-thaw days, the number of days without natural snow cover, and liquid precipitation during the winter. These four climate hazards will increase all over Quebec from November to March, when looking forward at the 2021-2050 horizon as well as the 2041-2070 horizon, according to moderate and high GHG emission scenarios.  

Based on the relationships identified in past data between weather events and resort performance, it is possible to estimate the impact of future climate projections on ski resorts’ economic variables. Ski resorts can expect:

• An increase in capital expenditures to maintain activities affected by the increase in freeze-thaw episodes and liquid precipitation

• A decrease in the length of the ski season (fewer operating days) as liquid precipitation, average temperatures and freeze-thaw episodes increase

• A need to increase staffing levels at ski resorts to ensure that slopes remain in good condition and are repaired following more frequent freeze-thaw episodes

• A 2% reduction in ski visits in the short term and 6% in the medium term due to liquid precipitation

The vulnerability of the ski system is multifactorial. It involves factors having to do with sensitivity (regional competitiveness, relationships with partners, business models, water availability, infrastructure and facilities, etc.) and adaptive capacity (organizational, financial, technical and ecosystem-wide capacities) that are specific to the elements that are exposed to climate hazards at the local and industry-wide levels. Of these multiple factors, none stands out as a key determinant of vulnerability, which underlines the importance of understanding the two characteristics of vulnerability before deciding on which actions to take to adapt to climate change.

Industry-wide resilience plan  

An industry-wide resilience plan was developed to guide the ski industry and its stakeholders toward greater climate change resilience. Six areas of resilience specific to the alpine ski industry were identified in the literature and through interviews with ski resort managers: 

• Area 1: Anticipation and adaptation planning 

• Area 2: Pooling / collaborative solutions

• Area 3: Allocating resources to adaptation

• Area 4: Optimizing landscape design and infrastructure

• Area 5: Promoting mountain activities

• Area 6: Public support for the adaptation of the alpine ski industry and mountain tourism

Establishing a governance structure uniting all the stakeholders concerned by climate change adaptation is an essential condition for the successful implementation and follow-up of the industry-wide resilience plan.
Some examples of measures include: 

On an industry-wide scale:

• Pooling training and specialized resources for climate change adaptation, as well as marketing and communication efforts to develop the next generation of skiers (Area 2)

• Raising awareness of alpine skiing’s tourism, social and economic contribution to the tourism ecosystem near the mountain (Area 6)

• Creating a provincial observatory to gather data on vulnerability in the mountains in all four seasons, facilitate access to data, improve understanding of climate issues, and encourage collaboration between all economic players involved in the mountain tourism ecosystem, in addition to mobilizing them to preserve and enhance natural resources (Area 6)

At the level of individual ski resorts:

• Vulnerability assessments carried out by ski resort managers themselves, using the self-assessment tool, with the aim of (i) understanding their sensitivity and adaptive capacity factors while accounting for subtleties and specific realities, (ii) internalizing climate change adaptation skills, and (iii) developing comprehensive climate change adaptation plans (Area 1)

• Applying best practices to water withdrawals for snowmaking, taking climate projections into account to avoid usage conflicts and current and future laws and regulations (Area 1)

• Diversifying the offering of resort-related activities and services (Area 5)

Funded by the Quebec government as part of the Ministry of Tourism's Action Plan for Responsible and Sustainable Tourism 2020-2025.

• Pascal Bourgault, Émilie Bresson, Raphaël Desjardins, Eric Dupuis, Sonia Hachem, Diane Chaumont, Ursule Boyer-Villemaire, Travis Logan, Martin Leduc (Ouranos)

• Isabelle Falardeau et Louise Laigroz (Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières)

• François Delorme, Renaud Gignac, Florence Ouellet et Clarisse Thomas (FDC consultants)

• Gabrielle Larose (ASSQ)

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