Post-2100 Climate Scenarios - Case Studies in the Mining Sector

This project aims to produce and disseminate climate scenarios for assessing the impacts of greenhouse gases beyond 2100. Case studies will be done to illustrate their use in analyzing the climate vulnerabilities of mine site reclamation infrastructure.

Project details

Scientific program

2020-2025 programming

Theme(s) and priority(s)

Climate Science and Climate Services

Start and duration

September 2024 • December 2026

Project Status

Starting

Principal(s) investigator(s)

Émilie Bresson

Ouranos

Context

One of the mining sector’s main climate change vulnerabilities is mine closure. Reclamation facilities, which are responsible for a mine site’s environmental performance, are permanent and are exposed to the climate, making them vulnerable to certain climate hazards (droughts, heavy rainfall, thawing of permafrost, etc.). However, the climate scenarios currently available through the data portals for Quebec and Canada all end in 2100. They do not enable the analysis of vulnerabilities and solutions for adapting mine site reclamation infrastructure to climate change after this date.

In the absence of information on future climate hazards after 2100, this infrastructure could be threatened by premature aging or significant failures associated with designs that are inadequate for the climate conditions.

Objective(s)

Develop a set of post-2100 climate scenarios accompanied by an interpretation guide to support long-term adaptation decisions
Conduct and publish three case studies using post-2100 scenarios to inform adaptation decisions in the mining sector

Methodology

Explore climate tipping points to consider their impact on post-2100 scenarios
Explore innovative approaches to the probabilistic analysis of uncertainties regarding future GHG emissions
Evaluate different methodological approaches for the production of post-2100 scenarios
Produce post-2100 scenarios for Quebec and Canada
Consult with experts to identify case study topics in the mining sector
Have consultants generate three case studies using post-2100 scenarios
Publish the case studies in French and English
Write articles and present the results to professionals in the mining sector

Expected results

Scaled climate scenarios for Quebec and Canada covering the period after 2100
A guide to interpreting and using climate scenarios
Examples of the use of these scenarios in the mining sector

Benefits for adaptation

This project will make tools and data available to better support and inform adaptation decision-making for sectors with long planning horizons, particularly mining.