Snowstorms over northeastern north america: quantification and expected changes
The expected results will enable decision makers on the east coast of North America to better plan future needs for emergency response and equipment in the event of snowstorms.
Project details
Principal(s) investigator(s)
Context
Heavy snowfall along the east coast of North America (from Georgia to Québec) can be extremely disruptive depending on its intensity, but also depending on community preparedness and resilience.
This project will quantify projected changes in heavy snowfall, particularly with respect to rare events occurring in regions that are generally unaffected by this type event and less well prepared than those further to the north.
Objective(s)
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Evaluate the ability of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) to reproduce heavy snowfall for specific events and on a climatological basis;
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Determine changes in snowfall over northeastern North America between 1955 and 2100;
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Characterize the uncertainty associated with natural variability and sample extreme events according to spatial distribution (especially latitude)
Methodology
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Transfer snowfall data from the 50 ClimEx Ensemble members (CRCM5 driven by CanESM2 over northeastern North America) to NASA.
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Define changes in snowfall statistics by time and region.
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The analyses will be based on threshold values (e.g. 15 cm or more) and the fraction of annual precipitation that falls as snow.
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Analyze changes in frequency and occurrence, both on a daily and multi-day basis. Quantify the most extreme events and their spatial distribution.
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Using tools developed by NASA, evaluate the ability of CRCM5 (driven by ERA-interim reanalysis data) to reproduce observed snowstorms during the 1979-2015 period.
Expected results
This project will quantify anticipated changes in heavy snowfall over northeastern North America and natural variability, in addition to characterizing extreme snowstorms with return periods of up to 50 years.
Benefits for adaptation
Benefits for adaptation
The expected results will enable decision makers on the east coast of North America to better plan future needs for emergency response and equipment in the event of snowstorms.
For regions further south, this project will allow for better evaluation of risk, which is very real despite the infrequency of extreme events.
Note
The CRCM5 was developed by UQÀM’s ESCER centre, in collaboration with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
Funding
The contribution of Ouranos and NASA to this project is in kind
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