Economic analyses of forest fire adaptation measures for Quebec

This project will provide an analysis of the economic impacts of forest fires in the context of climate change in Quebec. It will also analyze the cost effectiveness of adaptation solutions to enable informed decision-making.

Project details

Scientific program

2020-2025 programming

Theme(s) and priority(s)

Climate Science and Climate Services - Economy - Extreme Events

Start and duration

August 2024 • December 2026

Project Status

In progress

Principal(s) investigator(s)

Laurent Da Silva

Nada Conseils

Context

Conditions conducive to forest fires are expected to worsen across Quebec and Canada. However, no multidisciplinary study has quantified their economic impacts in Quebec (Ouranos, 2023) or assessed the cost-effectiveness of adaptation solutions. The aim of this project is to fill this gap and improve decision-making on adaptation in this context.

Objective(s)

To quantify the economic costs associated with forest fires in 2023, and do a projection of these costs over the entirety of Quebec in the context of climate change
To evaluate the cost effectiveness of different adaptation measures through cost-benefit analyses of measures to reduce the impact of forest fires on infrastructure, on economic, recreational and cultural activities, on populations, and on ecosystems

Methodology

The project is structured around four main research activities:

Assessing the economic impact of the 2023 forest fires
Establishing forest fire damage functions
Projecting the economic impacts of forest fires in current and future climates
A cost-benefit analysis of adaptation solutions

These activities will incorporate partners according to each one’s expertise, and will be enhanced by a mobilization committee made up of all stakeholders, meeting twice a year to ensure the project runs smoothly.

Expected results

This project will provide an overview of the economic impacts of forest fires in a future climate by considering the costs of fire suppression, emergency management, psychosocial and health consequences, losses of economic activity, rebuilding infrastructure, and losses of ecological and cultural services. It will also give rise to recommendations on cost-effective adaptation measures.

In addition, this project will propose an economic model specific to the problem of forest fires, which can serve as an analytical framework for use in other parts of Canada that are vulnerable to forest fires but were not covered by this project.

Benefits for adaptation

This project will provide quantifiable, rigorous, credible information to ministries, organizations and communities in areas prone to forest fires, in order to support decision-making and help implement adaptation solutions to reduce the negative consequences of forest fires in Quebec.