Assessment of the Impact of Land Use Change on Climate – Phase 2
Many climate change adaptation and mitigation measures involve changes in land use, including urban planning, agricultural practices, the planting of trees or crops for bioenergy or carbon capture, and the restoration of natural ecosystems.
Project details
Principal(s) investigator(s)
Context
Land use changes alter energy and water exchanges between the atmosphere and the Earth’s surface. For example, converting a forest to agricultural land changes the reflectivity and rugocity of the surface, as well as its ability to retain and release water through evapotranspiration. These biophysical effects have a significant influence on the climate at the regional and global level. During the first phase of this project, called Forest–Herbaceous, the sensitivity of the CRCM5 to complete afforestation/deforestation was evaluated and compared with an ensemble of regional models. During this second phase, realistic land use changes will be considered. In particular, the emphasis will be on the relative contributions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land use changes consistent with the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios.
This project was carried out in two phases.
Objective(s)
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To generate land use maps consistent with the recent past, the present, and two future scenarios, and to implement these maps in the CRCM5.
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To quantify the relative contributions of land use changes, GHGs and natural variability to present and future climates in North America and in Europe.
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To identify the mechanisms responsible for the climate response to changes in land use.
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To produce an ensemble of simulations to support the ClimEx II research project in collaboration with the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.
This project is part of the INFO-Crue initiative set up by the MELCCFP.
Methodology
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In collaboration with colleagues at the GERICS centre in Germany, develop realistic vegetation maps for North America, as well as projections consistent with the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios.
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Produce CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA5 reanalysis over two domains, North America and Europe, with four vegetation coverages: past (1950), present (2015), and two consistent with 2100 in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios.
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Produce CRCM5 simulations driven by four MPI-ESM members over both domains with five combinations of GHGs and land coverages (present, SSP1, SSP3).
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Compare the climatology of the simulations driven by ERA5 in order to assess the impact of land use in the present climate, and then compare the relative contributions of GHGs, land use changes and natural variability using simulations driven by the MPI-ESM.
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Compare the results of the CRCM5/CLASS simulations over the Europe domain with the ensemble of simulations produced by Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) Phase II, which will have the advantage of incorporating several regional models.
Expected results
This project will assess the relative contributions of land use changes and GHGs to present and future climates in North America and Europe. The simulations produced will also be used to assess the impact of land use on the water cycle.
Benefits for adaptation
Benefits for adaptation
Several climate change adaptation and mitigation measures involve changes in land use. This is particularly the case for urban planning, agricultural practices, tree planting and crops for bioenergy or carbon capture, as well as the restoration of natural ecosystems.
This project will assess the regional climate impacts of such actions, such as the modification of rainfall patterns and extreme temperatures.
The hydrological component of the project will assess the impacts of land use changes on water regimes, and particularly on floods.
Scientific publications
Funding
Other participants
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Ralf Ludwig, LMU
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Richard Turcotte, DEH
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Nathalie de Noblet-duCoudré, IPSL
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Diana Rechid, GERICS
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Peter Hoffmann, GERICS
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Vanessa Reinhart, GERICS
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