Expected consequences of worsening severe water shortages in Quebec (CASCADES project - Phase 2) - Study case
The second phase of this project will begin to document the chain of consequences of water scarcity on a provincial scale, in terms of the cascading effects on the well-being of human populations and ecosystems.
Project details
Principal(s) investigator(s)
Context
Several severe low water level episodes have occurred in recent years, and it is recognized that Quebec will be increasingly affected by water shortages due to climate change. However, the consequences of severe water shortages are still poorly documented.
The first phase of the CASCADES project (2022-2024) provided an initial portrait of the possible consequences of water deficits throughout southern Quebec. This second phase of the project aims to build on these province-wide results in order to explore the chain of consequences more deeply in two areas where the situation is expected to deteriorate in the coming years. They are the integrated water management zones by watershed of the Nicolet River, in the Centre-du-Québec region, and the Rivière du Nord.
The project’s value lies in its goal of initiating the documentation of the consequence propagation chain through consultations with the water stakeholders of the two areas involved, based on the narratives developed in Phase 1 of the project.
This project was carried out in two phases and the first one ended in 2024.
Objective(s)
The overall objective of the project is to document the chain of consequences of a future severe low-water event at the local scale, including the modification of hydroclimatic conditions and the impacts on ecosystems, usages and community well-being, for the integrated water management zones by watershed of the Rivière du Nord (Abrinord) and the Nicolet River (COPERNIC).
Methodology
The proposed method has three stages:
Consulting with local stakeholders. In collaboration with the watershed organizations of the areas under study, 8 to 12 stakeholders will be identified in each area to take part in the process (introductory webinar to the project, participation in an individual interview or a virtual focus group).
Adapting the narratives to the areas being studied and conducting an in-person situational workshop for each of them. The purpose of the workshop is to encourage the stakeholders to identify and add detail to the cascade of potential consequences of a severe low-water episode in a future climate.
Preparing deliverables and disseminating the results in the form of two case studies.
Expected results
An infographic presenting a summary of the findings of the first phase of the CASCADES project in order to raise awareness among local stakeholders and encourage stakeholder participation in this second phase of the project.
A final report including two case studies showing the main consequences of severe water scarcity on ecosystems and on human uses for the two areas studied.
Presentations on the project’s results (Ouranos webinar, symposia, or conferences, depending on the opportunities).
An update of the research priorities identified in Phase 1 of the project based on the new knowledge acquired.
Benefits for adaptation
Benefits for adaptation
This project will be of interest to public bodies, public authorities, and water resource management organizations in the two areas concerned, in particular.
The case studies carried out will allow stakeholders to identify some of the future risks associated with hydrological low flows and droughts, which can inform thinking on possible adaptation measures.
The project will also identify the benefits and limitations of using narratives to encourage learning by those involved in water management.
Other areas could also draw inspiration from this approach to conduct a similar exercise with their water users.
Funding
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709040
