Climate change and hydrological extreme events : risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec
This project has enabled the optimization of flood and low-water risk management and the development of proactive adaptation strategies.
Project details
Principal(s) investigator(s)
Context
The ClimEx project seeks to investigate the occurrence and impacts of extreme meteorological events on the hydrology in Bavaria (a federal state of Germany) and in Québec under changing climate conditions. Available time series of the observed climate are generally too short to produce a reliable portrait of extreme events. Longer time series can be obtained from large ensembles of Global Climate Model simulations but their coarse resolution is not appropriate for basin-scale studies. ClimEx aims at providing an appropriate dataset for addressing hydrological extreme events and their dependence on the evolving climate at finer spatial and temporal resolutions. The production of an unprecedentedly large ensemble of regional climate simulations will allow ClimEx partners to collaborate on the advancement of research in hydrological modelling of extremes, as well as develop innovative technologies for flood and low flow forecasting and risk assessment aimed towards effective adaptation measures to climate change in Bavaria and Québec.
Objective(s)
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Produce a dynamically downscaled version of the 50-member ensemble from the CanESM2-LE Global Climate Model at very high spatial (11 km) and temporal (1-3 hours) resolutions for Bavaria and Québec for the past and future reaching the year 2100.
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Apply this dataset in studies of past and future extreme hydrological events with multiple hydrological models over a series of basins of interest.
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Develop methods for model auditing and quality control in the hydro-climatological modelling chain.
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Obtain estimates of the natural climate variability and extreme events and their relationship with climate change over Bavaria and Québec.
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Develop multi-dimensional 3D visualizations from the data for communication, education and training.
Methodology
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Install, test and configure the CRCM5 regional climate model on the SuperMUC HPC.
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Prepare the experimental set-up and launch production of CRCM5 runs.
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Prepare data to use as an input to hydrological models (post-processing, statistical downscaling).
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Perform large ensembles of hydrological simulations over watersheds of Bavaria and Québec.
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Analyze the unprecedented long time series of climatic and hydrological variables with respect to natural variability and the climate change signal.
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Pursue sharing of knowledge, data, personnel and capacity building between members of the Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change (QBIC3).
Benefits for adaptation
Benefits for adaptation
Optimization of flood and low flow risk management and development of proactive adaptation strategies.
Establishment of scenario model environments to evaluate wide ranges of prevention, mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Collaborative development between Bavarian/Québec governmental agencies (LfU and MDDELCC) on flood and low flow risk management and on adaptation strategies.
Scientific publications
Funding
The principal investigators acknowledge the contribution of ESCER Center at UQAM for the development of the CRCM5 and Environment Canada's CCCma for the provision of CanESM2-LE dataset.
Other participants
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Bavarian Environment Agency – Landesamt für Umwelt (LfU)
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Ludwig Maximilians University (LMU)
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Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ)
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École de technologie supérieure (ETS)
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Ministère du Développement durable, Environnement et Lutte contre les changements climatiques (MDDELCC)
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