Impact of Climate Change on Nunavik’s Maritime and Coastal Environment: Knowledge Synthesis

The Nunavik coastline experienced significant climate change between 1987 and 2016. During this period, temperatures increased in all seasons. The rise in temperature was greatest in winter, with an increase of 1.5°C per decade. Total precipitation has increased by 3% per decade across the entire region in the last 50 years.

Aware of the major upheavals affecting Nunavik’s coastal and maritime environments, the Ministère des Transports du Québec (MTQ) equipped several northern communities with measurement devices and funded a number of studies into the impacts of climate change between 2009 and 2020.

These studies refined our knowledge of the probable changes in the main hydroclimatic hazards (water levels, ice conditions, storms and waves) likely to damage natural and anthropized coastal environments. To facilitate access to recent results and to ensure effective transfer of this knowledge, the results have been grouped together and summarized into a set of decision-support tools.

Photo : CAIMAN Network

Inform and educate decision makers about the importance of considering climate change in land-use planning and development, maintenance and construction processes in order to strengthen their capacity to act in the face of hydroclimatic hazards.

• Produce a non-technical knowledge synthesis, regional and local maps and summary tables (key study findings, future changes in the intensity and recurrence of hydroclimatic hazards, and examples to guide decision making on sustainable adaptation of coastal infrastructures);

• Produce a technical synthesis detailing the methods and uncertainties of the results of the studies presented;

• Revision by scientific reviewers and a user committee;

• Design a flyer and a presentation summarizing the key points of the synthesis in French,

• English and Inuktitut; Communicate the key findings to professionals, planners and elected municipal officials.

Later ice formation in the fall and earlier melting in the spring will extend the ice-free period by six weeks to two months. The period of unstable sea and landfast ice could also be longer.

In December, ice concentrations could decrease to 40% and 60% on the coasts from Ivujivik to Kangiqsualujjuaq and ice formation could cease entirely between Ivujivik and Inukjuak by the 2040-2070 period.Extreme high and low water levels that previously had 100-year return periods could occur every 50 years by approximately the middle of the 21st century.

Most coastal sites in Nunavik could experience positive storm surges of up to 1 m (Figure 1) and negative storm surges at the same levels as in the recent past. However, post-glacial rebound in Nunavik could compensate for the higher global sea level and could even lead to lower or unchanged relative sea levels at several sites (especially in Hudson Bay) by the end of the 21stcentury, thus reducing the impact of positive storm surges.

On the other hand, extreme negative storm surges and the reduced rise in the global sea level could lead to lower extreme low levels with greater coastal impacts.

Figure 1. Types and periods of data acquisition in the communities of Nunavik

Figure 2. Extreme levels of surges for the 1980-2009 period and their variations for the 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 horizons in Nunavik

The 14 Inuit communities are located on the coastline where hazard probability is high and are thus potentially at risk (Figure 2). The understanding of climate risks and the other factors that influence the vulnerability and risks of Nunavik’s marine and coastal environments provides an already solid foundation for solution implementation.

There have already been a number of initiatives aimed at successful adaptation in northern environments, such as construction norms specific to the North, and outreach programs to facilitate an understanding of climate change and risk-reduction measures have been put in place.

While some knowledge-related challenges remain, this knowledge synthesis shows that there is sufficient information on climate risk for the region to make more informed decisions and reduce the magnitude of potential consequences for the safety of population and infrastructures along the coast.