Integrated approach for evaluating the adaptive capacity of populations in the Artibonite watershed (Haiti) to the water-related impacts of climate change

The Artibonite River is the largest natural water reserve in Haiti and the country’s most important watershed, covering an area of 9,550 km², one third of which lies within the Dominican Republic. Known as Haiti's breadbasket, the Artibonite Valley is the country’s primary producer of rice, one of the principle cereal in the Haitian diet. This is all the more important since agriculture accounts for 23 % of the country’s GDP, according to a 2014 USAID study. However, this area is facing several challenges, including a lack of water. The issues are not the same along the upper and lower sections of the Artibonite. Problems in the upstream portion (Upper Artibonite) are related to decreased precipitation, water erosion and delayed onset of the rainy season. Problems downstream (Lower Artibonite) have to do with flooding and a lack of potable water. Climate change will result in higher temperatures and lower precipitation, which will impact the local populations who will be forced to adapt to the new conditions.

• Evaluate the vulnerability of the local population to the impacts of climate change based on their perceptions.

• Analyze the factors they believe influence their vulnerability.

• Calculate social vulnerability index scores at the district level.

• Apply an inductive approach (which starts with observations to form a hypothesis) to understanding individual and household perceptions using the grounded theory method (the construction of theory through the methodic gathering and analysis of data rather than from a predetermined hypothesis);

• Develop a deductive approach (which tests a predetermined hypothesis against observations) using a geographic information system called SOLAP (Spatial Online Analytical Processing);

• Use Haiti’s last national census data to calculate the social vulnerability index.

Although individuals and households in the Artibonite watershed are primarily concerned with their day to day survival, they nevertheless observe changes in their environment and accurately describe those that pose a threat to their livelihood activities: flooding, drought, water-borne diseases and disruption of the crop calendar. As climate variability directly affects their livelihoods, it is considered more important than climate change, which is seen as something that will happen in more distant future. These populations do not necessarily attribute changes in their environment to climate change, and this is reflected in the virtual absence of adaptation strategies. However, when the link is established, they accurately describe the changes they experience and identify which factors they perceive to influence their vulnerability. According to the analysis carried out using SOLAP, certain factors appear to influence household perception more than others. These are age, sector of activity, single vs. multiple economic activities, education, possession and type of assets (Figure 1).

Figure 1 : Perception of vulnerability according to mutliplicity of economic activity.

These findings agree with the social vulnerability index scores calculated in a more objective manner and at a more macro level (Figure 2) using a series of indicators such as socioeconomic status, gender, age, occupation, level of education, etc. Populations feel powerless in the face of climate variability and changes because of their lack of knowledge and resources. They also know that some of their activities exacerbate existing problems, such as the cutting of trees to make charcoal, which in their opinion contributes to a decrease in rainfall. However, they believe there are no other alternatives if they want to survive and meet their daily needs. They find themselves in a situation of crisis management at the expense of their adaptation capacity, which increases their vulnerability.

Figure 2 : Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) of districts in Haiti.

In such a context of poverty, it is necessary for any adaptation project or program to integrate the dual objective of reducing poverty and strengthening the capacity for climate change adaptation. As long as people are primarily concerned with securing better access to goods and services (greater equity), it will be difficult to engage them in discussion about adaptation to climate change.

In conclusion, for adaptation efforts to be effective, it is important to consider what matters most to the people concerned. More specifically, they should be involved in any research which aim to find solutions to their problems, and the application of solutions should rely on local resources. Indeed, any adaptation or coping strategy must be based on local resources and involve the different communities before, during and after their implementation.