Portrait of Snow Cover Indices
This project will facilitate access to historic and future snow cover data across Quebec at a resolution in the order of 10 km. Users and decision-makers from a multitude of sectors will enjoy a broader range of climate information to integrate into their adaptation plans.
Project details
Principal(s) investigator(s)
Context
Access to climate projections of snow cover and the resulting indices has aroused the interest of Ouranos’ partners and many users for a long time. Recently, an agreement between the Quebec Ski Area Association (ASSQ) and Ouranos led to the development of this project in order to meet the needs of alpine ski resorts across Quebec. To make this project transversal and useful for different industries and sectors, the climate indices of snow cover that were considered were calculated for the entirety of Quebec.
The Quebec Ski Area Association commissioned Ouranos to conduct a study on the system of alpine ski facilities and its adaptation to climate change.
The project Diagnosis of the Quebec ski system’s vulnerability to climate change represents another aspect of this mandate.
Objective(s)
To develop indices of snow cover specifically for ski facilities in Quebec, which can be useful to users from other industries and sectors
To produce a climate portrait of statistically bias-adjusted historical and future indices of snow cover throughout Quebec
To make the information available on the Ouranos Climate Portraits website and on PAVICS thereafter
The ministère du Tourisme has awarded Ouranos a mandate to support adaptation to climate change in Quebec's tourism sector. This mandate will help partners experiment with innovative solutions to promote the development of a resilient tourism industry.
Methodology
Selection of a reference grid-based database using observations taken at meteorological stations for validation
Selection of a stastical bias-ajustement method adapted to indices of snow cover (taking into account the seasonality of snow, in particular)
Selection of a ensemble of regional simulations that consistently reproduce the characteristics of seasonality and maximal snow cover
Development of indices of snow cover
Calculation and statistical bias-adjustment of the indices
Statiscally bias-adjusted indices of snow cover put into the appropriate formats for availability on the Ouranos Climate
Portraits site and on PAVICS thereafter
Results
This project has provided a province-wide view of snow cover behavior through various indices, such as the duration of snow cover.
The main results are :
A general decrease in projected snow cover for the entire Québec-ski domain; lower annual snow water equivalent maximums; a shorter period of continuous snow cover, linked to a later start and earlier end.
In the south and in the St. Lawrence valley, a decrease in natural snow cover that becomes more pronounced as the period approaches the end of the century, and also more significant with simulations using RCP 8.5 (high emissions scenario) than RCP 4.5 (moderate emissions scenario).
In the rest of the domain, a less marked reduction in snow cover, with regions less affected towards the north of the domain and on certain reliefs, including the Charlevoix, Monts-Valin and Chic-Chocs massifs.
The pattern of days with a large increase in 24-hour snow cover changes little, whatever the RCP or time horizon considered.
The PINS ensemble forms a quality ensemble of simulations for projecting the snow cover in Quebec. Beyond the work carried out for this project, the PINS ensemble offers the possibility of studying various aspects of climate simulation of snow cover.
Simulated continuous snow cover duration (days) for the reference period 1991-2020 and 2041-2070 horizon. 1991-2020 panel shows PINS simulations ensemble mean (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 combined). For 2041-2070 period, each RCP is showed individually (RCP 4.5 ensemble higher part; RCP 8.5 lower part of the column). Top panel shows ensemble mean, bottom left minimum and bottom right maximum. ASSQ Alpine ski stations are shown in red if implied in this project, ans in purple otherwise.
Benefits for adaptation
Benefits for adaptation
This project has created a new set of statically bias-adjusted historical and future climate data of snow cover across Quebec at a resolution of about 10 km.
Putting this information on snow cover on PAVICS will make it accessible and applicable.
Users and decision-makers in other sectors (e.g. transport, municipalities, infrastructure, mining) have a wider range of climate information to integrate into their assessments of adaptation issues related to snow cover.
Scientific publications
Funding
Funded by the Quebec government as part of the Ministry of Tourism's Action Plan for Responsible and Sustainable Tourism 2020-2025.
Other participants
Pascal Bourgault, Ouranos
Éric Dupuis, Ouranos
Yannick Rousseau, Ouranos
Pierre Pellerin, Ouranos
Martin Leduc, Ouranos
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