Tools facilitating the analysis of climate-related infrastructure risks

This project will offer support for the process of prioritizing public infrastructure components in terms of vulnerability to climate change, based on evidence.

Project details

Scientific program

2020-2025 programming

Theme(s) and priority(s)

Climate Science and Climate Services

Start and duration

June 2022 • 2,5 years

Project Status

In progress

Principal(s) investigator(s)

David Huard

Ouranos

Context

Adapting infrastructure to climate change often requires quantifying the risks associated with hazards such as extreme rainfall, high winds or heat waves. Existing guides and methodological approaches (ISO 31000; PIEVC Protocol) leave it up to practitioners to carry out the climate analyses required for their implementation themselves. However, estimating the probability of a climate hazard in the future (middle or end of the century) requires specialized expertise in climate science and access to vast data sets (the latest generation of climate projections, records from observation stations, and other recent climate data), which few organizations have.

Objective(s)

To facilitate access to the right climate information, in the right format, and make it easier to use for climate risk analysis purposes, by developing tools to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of various hazards that are relevant to infrastructure and influenced by climate change.

Methodology

Assess engineers’ needs with respect to future climate information for public infrastructure risk analysis.
Establish a list of climate hazards and indicators.
Calculate future climate indicators.
Extract a value for the probability of exceeding a threshold with a safety margin.
Develop software and run it on PAVICS (as well as data).
Develop and roll out a graphical interface.

Expected results

The project will lead to the development of calculation services and a prototype to make them accessible online for use by professionals performing risk analyses for infrastructure. They will be adaptable to the various risk analysis frameworks used in practice, and applicable across Canada where station data is available. By explicitly taking climate uncertainties into account, they will facilitate the determination of climate safety margins.

These calculation tools will be accompanied by concrete application examples and technical information.
The prototype of the platform will be available upon request.

Benefits for adaptation

Recognizing the growing need for risk analyses in order to better develop, design and maintain infrastructure projects in Canada, the project will offer:

Straightforward access to probabilities for assessing the consequences associated with climate change

Support for the process of prioritizing public infrastructure components in terms of vulnerability to climate change, based on evidence

An innovative methodology for taking climate uncertainties into account in the calculation of safety margins as well as concrete examples of applications that will serve as inspiration and a methodological guide for professionals who are new to risk analysis