Understanding the Needs and Decision-Making Mechanisms of Future Users of the Real-Time Flood Forecasting Tool

In the spring of 2017, historic water levels and a record number of landslides caused unprecedented flooding in Québec. In response to these floods, the Québec government launched a reflection on flood risk management in the context of climate change that culminated in the creation of the INFO-Crue project, led by the Ministère de l’environnement et de la lutte aux changements climatiques (MELCC) and supported by Ouranos.

One of the objectives of INFO-Crue is to develop real-time flood forecasting that will provide authorities with predictive maps of areas that could be flooded within a few days and to make this information accessible to the community. This forecasting tool must provide appropriate information on short-term flood risk, allowing the various stakeholders to better prepare for the event. It is crucial that the information be available in a format adapted to the needs of users. A variety of users (including ministries, municipalities and citizens) are potentially concerned by hydrological forecasts, and their needs are not necessarily the same. This research is part of the developmental phase of the INFO-Crue forecasting tool.

• Understand the preferences of flood forecast users regarding the nature and presentation of information and how they interpret probabilistic forecasts;

• Understand the decision-making mechanisms that follow a flood forecast in order to identify the impacts of an incorrect forecast;

• Provide effective communication of flood forecasts.

• Review the literature on best practices in visualizing probabilistic forecasts and on visualisation tools for hydrological forecasts;

• Carry out consultations in the form of interviews with i) experts from different ministries and organizations, ii) 57 municipalities with various population sizes and flood risks in 13 administrative regions, and iii) citizens;

• Analyze and summarize the needs and preferences of the various users of the INFO-Crue forecasting tool and the mechanisms that lead to decision making based on flood forecasts.

The project will produce new knowledge on the needs of the different stakeholders and on the best practices to be adopted for the communication and dissemination of hydrological forecasts in the Québec context.

The results will contribute to the development of a forecasting tool adapted to the needs of the community that facilitates decision-making by the various stakeholders involved in flood management. The research will also lead to the development of a hub of expertise in the visualization of forecasts and their use.

This project was funded by Ouranos as part of the support for the MELCC's INFO-Crue initiative.