Thawing permafrost

 

By the end of the century, climate models are projecting a significant increase in the average annual temperature of about 3–5°C in several permafrost-covered areas of northern Quebec. 

This projected warming is likely to have an effect on temperatures and permafrost conditions in many parts of northern Quebec. Permafrost warming is expected to continue at a higher rate than previously recorded. However, its complete thaw in the northernmost regions of Quebec will take decades or even centuries. 

Figure dégel pergélisol

 

Figure 6 : Projected median temperature increases for Northwest Nunavik by 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP3-7.0) GHG emission scenarios. (From: Climate Portraits, 2023) 

 

 

The difficulty in establishing trends in permafrost thawing 

While this warming will likely affect soil temperatures and permafrost conditions in northern Quebec, it is difficult to accurately project reductions in the extent of the permafrost in these areas. This difficulty stems mainly from two factors. 

  1. Climate models do not adequately represent soil properties, such as the amount of ice, which complicates projections. 

  2. There is uncertainty about the response of deep permafrost to the rise in air temperature, as it is sometimes several hundred metres below the surface. This uncertainty further complicates the projection of the effects of climate change on permafrost. 

Other climate-related factors may also influence the response of permafrost to warming. For example, the growth of new shrubs on the tundra due to the warmer climate may favour the accumulation of snow, which has the ability to prevent soil from freezing. In addition, more frequent precipitation in the form of rain in winter can also accelerate permafrost thawing.

All these factors make projecting permafrost thawing in northern Quebec more complex. However, the expected increase in temperatures in the province suggests that this thawing will increase along with the effects of climate change. 

 

Return to the observed changes

Consult the impacts of thawing permafrost

 

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