Forests
How is climate change affecting Quebec’s forests?
Quebec’s forests and vegetation are very diverse, in keeping with the extent of the province. This means that the variations in temperature and precipitation caused by climate change will not necessarily have the same effects on every region or forest species.
That said, we are already seeing impacts on forest ecosystems, such as:
1. Changes in the distribution of forest habitats
2. An increase in insect and disease outbreaks
3. An increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts and forest fires
4. The reduction of ecosystem services associated with forest biodiversity
5. Changes in tree growth
Changes in the distribution of forest habitats
Each tree species reacts differently to the climate conditions and its environment, including the availability of water and soil nutrients and competition with other trees. Climate change, especially rising temperatures, can alter the distribution of plant species and the composition of forests.
A tree planted today in the right location for its development could experience a different climate when it reaches maturity. Climate projections indicate that climate suitability zones (the geographical area favourable to the development of a tree species) may gradually shift, particularly to the north.
As a result, 5 to 20% of forest habitats could become unsuitable for certain tree species by the end of the century. Changes in the distribution of plant species could disrupt the ecological functioning of forests as well as the types of wood available for the forest industry.
Figure 1 : Current zone (1971-2000) compared to the projected area (2071-2100) of the climate suitability zone of aspen (Populus tremuloides) in Canada under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, which assumes a continuous increase in emissions (from Natural Resources Canada, 2025).
Some plant species may not be able to adapt to new climate conditions and may not be able to migrate to keep up with these changes. The health and productivity of these forested areas could also decrease and have an impact on the forest industry. On the other hand, certain species, especially deciduous trees such as the gray birch and the bitternut hickory, may benefit from the milder temperatures.
Insect and disease outbreaks
Quebec forests are already struggling with numerous insect pests such as the spruce budworm, the emerald ash borer and the forest tent caterpillar. Rising temperatures are allowing these species to extend their range northward. For example, spruce budworm outbreaks could decrease in the south of the province: the insects may move north and cause more damage to other stands such as black spruce or Norway spruce.
By favouring an increase in the number of generations of certain pests, global warming may also change the relationships between insects and their hosts. Warming temperatures may encourage species of insects or diseases that were previously limited by the cold to arrive in Quebec.
Photo: Spruce budworm (source: Natural Resources Canada)
Définition | Number of generations
The number of generations refers to the number of times that a given species breeds per year. For example, the eastern spruce budworm and the forest tent caterpillar moth normally produce a single generation per year.
Learn more : Forest Insect and Disease Risk Maps
Drought
Drought can disrupt forests by hindering the growth of trees, increasing their vulnerability to insects and diseases and even causing their death. Droughts occur naturally in Canada’s boreal forests, and some species are more resistant to them than others. For example, jack pine is among the least affected species. However, even the most resilient species can suffer from droughts when they become more frequent or more intense.
Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts. They may cause considerable changes in forest ecosystems, impacting the health and productivity of trees, as well as the success of their regeneration. In addition, drought conditions considerably increase the risk of forest fires.
Forest Fires
Forest fires are changing due to climate change. Weather that is hotter and drier is more conducive to fire.
At the ecological level, more frequent and more intense fires are degrading forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. At the social level, forest fires have a negative impact on the physical and mental health of the populations exposed to them. And at the societal level, the effect on the supply of wood has significant economic impacts, and the costs associated with evacuations and infrastructure damage can become significant.
Research project | Capacity for regeneration following fire or logging, for reforestation and for the growth of juvenile/immature stands in the boreal forest
The results of this project will allow forest managers to assess the forestry development potential in northern areas and to identify the best practices for coping with natural disturbances related to climate change.
Webinaire | Forest fires: Canada has entered the pyrocene: What does the future hold for us?
Research project | Economic analyses of forest fire adaptation measures for Quebec
This project will provide an analysis of the economic impacts of forest fires in the context of climate change in Quebec. It will also analyze the cost-effectiveness of adaptation solutions to enable informed decision-making.
Changes in tree growth
In northern areas of Quebec, which are currently limited by cold temperatures, the warmer weather and extended growing season may have positive effects on tree growth.
In the south of the province, warming will have a mix of positive and negative effects. It may significantly reduce the growth of coniferous species. While the growth and productivity of thermophilic species (e.g. red maple, red oak, eastern hemlock and American beech) should increase, this may not compensate for the decline in productivity of coniferous species.
In addition, the changes mentioned above—the increase in drought conditions and the worsening of fires and pest and disease outbreaks—are also limiting factors for tree growth.
The reduction of ecosystem services associated with forest biodiversity
Forests, which are home to rich biodiversity and play a key role in regulating environmental processes, providing resources and supporting communities, are essential for maintaining the balance of ecosystems.
However, the consequences of climate change, combined with disturbances linked to human activities (such as deforestation), contribute to the degradation and even the decline of forests. This situation leads to a reduction in the ecosystem services associated with forest biodiversity, affecting both the resilience of natural environments and the quality of life of human communities. In this context, sustainable forest management strategies, focusing in particular on conservation and economic development, are crucial to protect these ecosystems and maintain the services they provide.
The influence of climate change on the forestry industry
The forestry industry in Quebec provides more than 57,000 jobs. It also contributes to the vitality of hundreds of municipalities. The forestry industry will experience the impacts of climate change in different ways and will inevitably have to adapt at several levels.
The volumes of wood harvested may decrease due to the deterioration of the productivity of forest ecosystems. Certain key forest species, representing up to 72% of the total volume of merchantable trees, may no longer be compatible with their current habitat area by the end of the 21st century. The quality of the harvested wood, when affected by pests, diseases, droughts or fires, could also decrease.
All forest management and forest planning will be confronted with the challenges of climate change. Forest managers must take this new reality into account and prepare today’s forests for tomorrow’s climate by adapting their practices.
Research project | Impacts of forest fires on the Quebec forestry industry in a variable and changing climate
The impacts on maple syrup production
Quebec is well known for its significant production of maple syrup, an activity that is closely linked to climate conditions. Due to rising temperatures and changes in the seasonality of freeze-thaw events, maple sap will start flowing earlier and the maple sugar season may be shorter.
This means that the more southern regions of Quebec may experience a decrease in production. However, the more northern maple syrup regions may get a boost, with the ideal temperatures for syrup production moving northward.
Winter temperatures will also affect the dynamics of tree energy reserves, for example the amount of sugar in maple sap. It will probably be less sweet, which could reduce yields.
The health of maple trees and sugar bushes may also be affected by more intense and frequent droughts and by outbreaks of insects such as the spongy moth. These threats can weaken trees by reducing their energy reserves, which are needed for syrup production and for their survival.
Research project | Maple syrup production and climate change: Identifying maple syrup producers’ concerns and providing them with the best information to promote and support adaptation
Among many economic activities, the production of Maple syrup is one of the most directly related to the climate and particularly to the spring climate.
Presentation | Maple syrup producers’ vulnerability to climate change and specific adaptation measures
Last update of the page : February 2026.
